Audit Explorer

Trace any prediction back to its inputs

Prediction #1294

Significant security deterioration in Venezuela within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentVENopen
71.4%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: e82b5598a1f3df5a71fde063262abd2290f332018f54308d4df2578dee357662
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7138, CI=[0.5638, 0.8638] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1293

Major conflict escalation in Venezuela within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationVENopen
71.4%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: e82b5598a1f3df5a71fde063262abd2290f332018f54308d4df2578dee357662
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7138, CI=[0.5638, 0.8638] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1292

Significant security deterioration in Iran within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentIRNopen
71.6%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 981a73b5484943dc96f8b233ef963e998ec3fd14642e6a78119b0bb19161e00d
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7156, CI=[0.5656, 0.8656] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1291

Major conflict escalation in Iran within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationIRNopen
71.6%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 981a73b5484943dc96f8b233ef963e998ec3fd14642e6a78119b0bb19161e00d
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7156, CI=[0.5656, 0.8656] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1290

Significant security deterioration in Caucasus within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentGEOopen
71.2%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 717de11d6fc2d22ee8c2bc0627377be2503cb721832209face948e375f4e4dfe
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7121, CI=[0.5621, 0.8621] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1289

Major conflict escalation in Caucasus within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationGEOopen
71.2%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 717de11d6fc2d22ee8c2bc0627377be2503cb721832209face948e375f4e4dfe
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7121, CI=[0.5621, 0.8621] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1288

Significant security deterioration in South China Sea within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentPHLopen
71.6%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 0e4bd9a14d224d866a92148f10772330db1f8b4cf7d05e30920cf1c8c521eae3
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7156, CI=[0.5656, 0.8656] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1287

Major conflict escalation in South China Sea within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationPHLopen
71.6%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 0e4bd9a14d224d866a92148f10772330db1f8b4cf7d05e30920cf1c8c521eae3
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7156, CI=[0.5656, 0.8656] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1286

Significant security deterioration in Korean Peninsula within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentPRKopen
71.6%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 92a93a8ee298d552ba89da664aba556e9fc522a855cd155ae16a9362fa218dbc
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7156, CI=[0.5656, 0.8656] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1285

Major conflict escalation in Korean Peninsula within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationPRKopen
71.6%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 92a93a8ee298d552ba89da664aba556e9fc522a855cd155ae16a9362fa218dbc
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7156, CI=[0.5656, 0.8656] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1284

Significant security deterioration in Red Sea within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentYEMopen
71.2%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 435cee5535008749285fabbf1aabc9d69c730fde93b2523f62709ff9fcdc29c9
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7118, CI=[0.5618, 0.8618] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1283

Major conflict escalation in Red Sea within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationYEMopen
71.2%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 435cee5535008749285fabbf1aabc9d69c730fde93b2523f62709ff9fcdc29c9
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7118, CI=[0.5618, 0.8618] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1282

Significant security deterioration in Sahel within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentMLIopen
70.7%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 75e32663756a98d1296e84f781aff2e76b5b34a97bc2b29c4a81b930f516e44d
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7071, CI=[0.5571, 0.8571] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1281

Major conflict escalation in Sahel within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationMLIopen
70.7%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: 75e32663756a98d1296e84f781aff2e76b5b34a97bc2b29c4a81b930f516e44d
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7071, CI=[0.5571, 0.8571] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1280

Significant security deterioration in Taiwan Strait within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentTWNopen
71.4%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: c055f0cf28fe707079f4b7c39c7e217a7e9fc9f76f691c00d7782c581096d12d
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7142, CI=[0.5642, 0.8642] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1279

Major conflict escalation in Taiwan Strait within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationTWNopen
71.4%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: c055f0cf28fe707079f4b7c39c7e217a7e9fc9f76f691c00d7782c581096d12d
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7142, CI=[0.5642, 0.8642] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1278

Significant security deterioration in Israel Lebanon within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentISRopen
71.2%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: a862c4be2028a16c0c1ba5066d34e409f244e3ff196e82448c8825bd0ef8fe6c
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7121, CI=[0.5621, 0.8621] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1277

Major conflict escalation in Israel Lebanon within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationISRopen
71.2%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: a862c4be2028a16c0c1ba5066d34e409f244e3ff196e82448c8825bd0ef8fe6c
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7121, CI=[0.5621, 0.8621] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1276

Significant security deterioration in Ukraine within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentUKRopen
71.5%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: aea8becd0912b520ebca81e4427dcd402b282b2cc85f5d2f505570e3bbf5a2aa
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7153, CI=[0.5653, 0.8653] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1275

Major conflict escalation in Ukraine within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationUKRopen
71.5%
defence-ensemble
Created: 2026-04-22 23:01:19 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 0.80

Input Snapshot

Hash: aea8becd0912b520ebca81e4427dcd402b282b2cc85f5d2f505570e3bbf5a2aa
Model: defence-active-1776898728341

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1776898728341): P=0.7153, CI=[0.5653, 0.8653] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: infantMortality (29.0%), monthCos (21.2%), ucdpDeathsTrend (20.2%) Missing features: gdeltTone, gdeltVolSpike, gdeltGoldstein, regimeType

Prediction #1274

Political instability onset in ZWE within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetZWEopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: 97a19632b6e0f87ecad95ff63c3d171b128cbc4dca9150527158e99b80fc4ce9
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=-1.04 → p=4.9%.

Prediction #1273

Political instability onset in ZAF within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetZAFopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: fc4c5dd5515042e2b14ebe224bd7c0bd9c28d7391e5fe0de62fb0a9351393024
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=-0.42 → p=4.9%.

Prediction #1272

Political instability onset in YEM within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetYEMopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: 3e9fb40af6be14c9c577725174f4dcb3e624026049d30aefdeb3beb05d91bb28
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=-1.77 → p=4.9%.

Prediction #1271

Political instability onset in VNM within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetVNMopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: 5655b52762db0602a073ce53c4168168394643b5ddfd1e15d29f820faa6dc74c
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=1.96 → p=4.9%.

Prediction #1270

Political instability onset in VEN within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetVENopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: c7bec40a7305786da0b0da98b694a2d884b0a13fda660f54aa18b837c4dc46cc
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=1.01 → p=4.9%.

Prediction #1269

Political instability onset in UZB within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetUZBopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: dc7dd008103995bb7d4049fd54d285679786cfa93f92a534f4a2660211829402
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=0.14 → p=4.9%.

Prediction #1268

Political instability onset in URY within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetURYopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: d59a770e5b0b8f8aa292cfa358ab688e435db57d3927d38ffa1a6546c46e866d
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=0.34 → p=4.9%.

Prediction #1267

Political instability onset in TZA within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetTZAopen
11.1%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: a10622b148357fe9a3ae288edbcdf730b065294a570f7313f81b90446e4ab313
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=1 + gdeltZ=1.29 → p=11.1%.

Prediction #1266

Political instability onset in TWN within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetTWNopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: 34f896041382d573161cd1875d72e77b3aa97f05c7ec2e4a43286086ccdee0cb
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=-0.71 → p=4.9%.

Prediction #1265

Political instability onset in TUR within 2 years (as of 2025)

conflictconflict_onsetTURopen
4.9%
pitf_4var_gdelt
Created: 2026-04-21 11:25:52 UTC  ·  Horizon: 730d  ·  Confidence: 0.50

Input Snapshot

Hash: ab6d2d3ce7cac6ad84485ab5e67ad7faa86bd0db788bce5d66e6dcdd2531e32c
Model: pitf-v2-gdelt

Reasoning

PITF-4var (pitf-v2-gdelt): IMR unavailable — base + anocracy=0 + badNbhd=0 + gdeltZ=-1.44 → p=4.9%.