OSINT Fusion & Probabilistic Forecasting for Decision Superiority
Dual-use deep tech decision support module delivering probabilistic conflict forecasts (Brier 0.106 / AUC 0.95 on 480 resolved predictions), automated scenario preparation, and natural-language operational queries. Designed as a plug-in capability for MSS NATO and Allied digital warfighting platforms, with civilian applications in risk consulting, insurance underwriting, and supply-chain intelligence.
An overview of the operational challenge Logicon addresses, how it augments the COP, the DIANA Exemplar Effects it addresses (4 strong + 3 partial), and current calibration performance.
The Operational Challenge
Static Plans in Dynamic Environments
The operational planning process is constrained by linear workflows and data that does not update dynamically. When real-world events unfold differently from initial assumptions, static plans lose relevance across tactical, operational, and strategic echelons.
Unstructured Data, No Synthesis
Analysts face thousands of signals daily: conflict events, ISR feeds, sanctions lists, OSINT, macro indicators. No single operator can fuse these multi-domain data streams into actionable intelligence at the speed required for situational understanding.
Opaque Assessments Without Calibration
Most forecasting tools produce scores without explanation or accountability. Without calibration metrics and audit trails, there is no systematic way to conduct operations assessment, measure whether predictions improve, or incorporate lessons learned.
How Logicon Augments the Common Operating Picture (COP)
Multi-Source Intelligence Fusion
Eight OSINT and commercial source connectors integrated; six actively used in the 18-feature production vector (UCDP, GDELT, FRED, OpenSanctions, V-Dem, World Bank); two ingested with collectors implemented (ACLED, WGI) for Phase 1 wiring. Features grouped across four dimensions: conflict dynamics, information environment, financial stress, structural vulnerability.
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting
Every prediction includes probability P, confidence interval [CI_low, CI_high], time horizon, and ranked key drivers. Isotonic calibration scaffold (Pool Adjacent Violators algorithm) implemented and validated offline against 480 resolved predictions; production activation pending data diversity expansion across regions in Phase 1.
Self-Learning with Drift Detection
Self-learning pipeline architecture: outcomes are collected as they resolve, walk-forward temporal validation harness implemented, Page-Hinkley drift detection deployed in baseline observation period. Full autonomous retraining loop is a Phase 1 deliverable.
Exemplar Effects Addressed
Strong Coverage (4 Effects)
Probabilistic Modelling & Optimisation (Effect #3)
Ensemble model (logistic regression + decision stump forest, 60/40 weights) produces probability estimates measured at Brier 0.106 / AUC 0.95 on 480 resolved predictions.
Automated Scenario Preparation (Effect #5)
Auto-generates regional intelligence briefings from live OSINT: current operational environment compiled from feature vector, top drivers, 30/90-day horizon estimates.
Operational Planning Support (Effect #6)
Probabilistic forecasts feed into the operational planning process, supporting Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace (IPB), Course of Action (COA) development, and operations assessment. Audit trail enables systematic post-operation review.
Open-Source & Commercial Data Integration (Effect #10)
Eight OSINT and commercial source connectors: UCDP, GDELT, FRED, OpenSanctions, V-Dem, World Bank (active in feature vector); ACLED, WGI (ingested for Phase 1 wiring).
Partial Coverage (3 Effects)
Red/Blue Force Simulation — Partial (Effect #1)
Adversarial scenario walkthrough on /scenarios/baltic with cumulative perturbation analysis (UAV detection → cable severance → vessel manoeuvre → border buildup → hostile intent). Full agent-based wargaming handled by complementary MSS NATO modules.
COA Systemic Parameter Exploration — Partial (Effect #4)
/scenarios/explorer enables operator-driven parameter variation across 16 sliders × 10 regions. Full COA framework features (side-by-side scenario comparison, scenario library, sensitivity analysis) handled by complementary MSS NATO COA tools.
Natural Language Interface — Partial (Effect #9)
/scenarios/query parses operator queries in plain English to structured scenario configurations and runs live engine inference. Native semantic drivers per prediction. Conversational multi-turn interaction handled by complementary modules.
Live Calibration
Data Sources
Designed for Integration with MSS NATO
Logicon is built as an API-first microservice, ready to augment existing digital warfighting platforms at Allied Command Operations (ACO) and JFC level. RESTful endpoints deliver probabilistic forecasts, pattern-of-life deviation alerts, scenario analysis, and intelligence briefings in JSON and GeoJSON formats, supporting decision superiority across the planning cycle.
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