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Transparency

Forecast Track Record

Every forecast we publish gets tracked and scored. We use Brier scores (lower is better, 0 = perfect) to measure calibration. No cherry-picking. Full transparency.

Total Forecasts
60
Resolved
0
Tactical Brier
—
Structural Brier
—
Strategic Brier
—
Tactical
30
Total
0
Resolved
0
Correct
No resolved forecasts yet
Structural
20
Total
0
Resolved
0
Correct
No resolved forecasts yet
Strategic
10
Total
0
Resolved
0
Correct
No resolved forecasts yet
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Logicon is a probabilistic geopolitical forecasting engine delivering calibrated predictions across 10 conflict regions, with ensemble ML, Brier-scored accuracy, and complete audit trails. Built for defence analysts and intelligence professionals.

Calibrated foresight for a complex world.

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Disclaimer: Logicon provides probabilistic forecasts based on open-source intelligence and machine learning models. Predictions are calibrated assessments of likelihood, not certainties. Past forecast accuracy is not a guarantee of future performance. Logicon is an analytical tool and does not constitute policy advice. All forecasts should be used in conjunction with professional judgement and additional intelligence sources.

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