Important Disclaimer
Forecasts are probabilistic assessments based on historical data and current indicators. They do not constitute actionable intelligence or policy recommendations.
Last updated: March 2026
Geopolitical and defence forecasts are inherently uncertain. They represent probabilistic assessments based on historical patterns, current indicators, and analytical models. Actual outcomes may differ significantly from forecast estimates due to unpredictable events, policy changes, or rapidly evolving situations on the ground.
Our forecasts represent analytical assessments of possible future scenarios. They are not guarantees of any outcome. Every forecast includes confidence intervals and calibration metrics to help you understand the degree of uncertainty involved. A high-confidence forecast does not mean the outcome is certain.
Historical forecast accuracy shown on our platform is for informational purposes only. Past calibration scores and Brier scores do not guarantee similar future accuracy. Geopolitical conditions evolve constantly and may render historical patterns less predictive.
Logicon is an analytical forecasting service. We are not a government intelligence agency, policy advisory body, or military planning organisation. Nothing provided by Logicon should be interpreted as actionable intelligence, operational directives, or policy recommendations. Always apply your own judgement and consult appropriate authorities before making decisions based on our forecasts.
You are solely responsible for how you interpret and act upon our forecasts. By using Logicon, you acknowledge that you understand these limitations and that Logicon bears no responsibility for any decisions made or actions taken based on our analytical output.
Information regulations vary by jurisdiction and may change. It is your responsibility to ensure that using this service complies with the laws and regulations in your country, including any restrictions on the dissemination of geopolitical intelligence.