Economic Forecast

Economic Risk

GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, debt levels, reserves, current account, and income inequality.

Countries scored

206

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.0/10

Above global average

High risk

Score >= 6.0

Critical

Score >= 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Macro Stress Fiscal Vulnerability Monetary Risk Structural Imbalance

Economic Powers (GDP PPP)

Top 12 economies by GDP PPP (IMF 2026) — the nations whose monetary policy, trade flows, and fiscal health drive global markets.

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	United Kingdom	5.6/10	elevated	→
2	United States	5.6/10	elevated	→
3	Turkey	5.4/10	elevated	→
4	Brazil	5.1/10	elevated	→
5	France	4.9/10	elevated	→
6	Italy	4.7/10	elevated	→
7	Germany	4.4/10	moderate	→
8	Indonesia	4.4/10	moderate	→
9	India	4.3/10	moderate	→
10	China	3.4/10	moderate	→
11	Japan	3.4/10	moderate	→
12	Russia	3.1/10	moderate	→

Sort by:

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Lebanon	8.0/10	critical	→	Monetary Risk: 9.6/10
2	Palestine	7.9/10	critical	→	Macro Stress: 9.9/10
3	New Caledonia	7.5/10	critical	→	Macro Stress: 9.3/10
4	Mozambique	7.4/10	high	→	Fiscal Vulnerability: 9.3/10
5	Yemen	7.1/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 7.7/10
6	Sudan	6.9/10	high	↓	Macro Stress: 8.3/10
7	South Sudan	6.8/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 9.6/10
8	Timor-Leste	6.8/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 9.7/10
9	Palau	6.7/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 10.0/10
10	Republic of the Congo	6.6/10	high	→	Structural Imbalance: 8.3/10
11	Dominica	6.6/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 9.8/10
12	Montenegro	6.6/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.6/10
13	Namibia	6.6/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.1/10
14	Sierra Leone	6.6/10	high	→	Structural Imbalance: 8.4/10
15	Equatorial Guinea	6.5/10	high	→	Structural Imbalance: 7.9/10
16	Senegal	6.5/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.9/10
17	Eswatini	6.5/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 9.5/10
18	Argentina	6.4/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 9.9/10
19	Malawi	6.4/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.8/10
20	Mongolia	6.3/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 7.4/10
21	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	6.3/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.6/10
22	Rwanda	6.2/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 7.9/10
23	South Africa	6.2/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 8.8/10
24	Burundi	6.1/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.4/10
25	Botswana	6.1/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 8.5/10
26	Gabon	6.1/10	high	→	Structural Imbalance: 7.2/10
27	French Polynesia	6.1/10	high	↑	Macro Stress: 6.8/10
28	Somalia	6.1/10	high	→	Structural Imbalance: 8.8/10
29	Curaçao	6.0/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 9.0/10
30	Micronesia	6.0/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 6.0/10

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See the full picture

This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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