Geopolitical Forecast

Geopolitical Risk

Political stability, regime type, conflict proximity, sanctions exposure, and news sentiment across 250 countries.

Countries scored

214

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.0/10

Above global average

High risk

Score >= 6.0

Critical

Score >= 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Regime Stability Conflict Proximity Social Pressure Governance Deficit

Geopolitical Powers

Nations that shape the global order — permanent UNSC members, nuclear states, and regional hegemons whose foreign policy decisions ripple worldwide.

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	Iran	8.2/10	critical	→
2	Turkey	6.8/10	high	→
3	China	6.7/10	high	→
4	Russia	6.5/10	high	→
5	Israel	6.1/10	high	→
6	India	5.9/10	elevated	→
7	Brazil	4.9/10	elevated	→
8	United States	3.9/10	moderate	→
9	France	3.0/10	moderate	→
10	United Kingdom	2.9/10	moderate	→
11	Germany	2.4/10	low	↓
12	Japan	2.1/10	low	→

Upcoming Events

Scheduled events in this category with AI-generated scenario analysis.

May 11, 2026 · in 18dOPEC+ Ministerial Meeting

May 16, 2026 · in 22dChinese Politburo Standing Committee

May 31, 2026 · in 38dNATO Summit — Foreign Ministers

Jun 7, 2026 · in 45dG7 Summit

Jun 15, 2026 · in 53dUK General Election Debates

See all forecasts →

Sort by:

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Yemen	9.0/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 9.2/10
2	Sudan	8.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.8/10
3	South Sudan	8.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 9.1/10
4	Syria	8.4/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
5	Chad	8.4/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 8.8/10
6	Iran	8.2/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.9/10
7	Somalia	8.2/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
8	Afghanistan	8.1/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
9	Myanmar	8.1/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
10	Mali	7.9/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
11	Libya	7.8/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.6/10
12	Niger	7.8/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.5/10
13	DR Congo	7.7/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
14	Palestine	7.7/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 8.2/10
15	Burkina Faso	7.6/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.7/10
16	Central African Republic	7.5/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
17	Ethiopia	7.5/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
18	Haiti	7.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.5/10
19	Cameroon	7.4/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.1/10
20	Iraq	7.4/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.0/10
21	Burundi	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.4/10
22	Eritrea	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
23	Guinea	7.3/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.2/10
24	Pakistan	7.3/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 7.9/10
25	Uganda	7.3/10	high	→	Conflict Proximity: 7.7/10
26	Venezuela	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
27	Republic of the Congo	7.2/10	high	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
28	Mozambique	7.1/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 7.8/10
29	North Korea	7.1/10	high	↑	Governance Deficit: 8.8/10
30	Eswatini	7.1/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.1/10

Upgrade to STANDARD+ to see the sub-dimension breakdown per country.

See the full picture

This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

View Plans