Baltic Demonstration Scenario

Walk through the illustrative scenario from the NATO DIANA challenge statement

This demonstration is based on the illustrative scenario described in the NATO DIANA Decision Superiority challenge statement. It shows how Logicon would process multi-source data as a crisis unfolds on NATO's Eastern Flank, updating escalation probability estimates in real-time as new information arrives.

How to read this page: This demonstration shows how Logicon augments the operational picture at each stage of an unfolding crisis. Logicon provides OSINT-fused probabilistic assessments using open data (GDELT, ACLED, OpenSanctions, AIS, social media). Tactical capabilities -- radar classification, ISR/SIGINT fusion, targeting, C2 workflows -- are handled by complementary modules within the broader MSS NATO platform. Logicon is one module in a larger system, not a replacement for it.

Escalation Probability
25%
LowModerateHighCritical
T+0

Baseline

P = 0.25

Grey-zone activities and rising political tensions. Allied defences bolstered on Eastern Flank. Naval force deployed in Baltic Sea. Ground troops near border. Air defence on high alert.

Sources:ACLEDGDELTOpenSanctions
Logicon contributes
  • GDELT tone analysis: media sentiment shift detected across Baltic region (-2.1 avg tone)
  • ACLED event correlation: grey-zone incidents mapped to historical escalation patterns
  • OpenSanctions cross-reference: newly sanctioned entities linked to regional military procurement
  • Bayesian prior set at P=0.25 based on multi-source feature vector
Complementary MSS NATO capabilities
  • Force posture tracking: allied unit deployment status and readiness levels
  • C2 workflow: standing defence plans activated for Eastern Flank
  • Secure communications: encrypted channels established between allied HQs
  • Air defence radar network: continuous surveillance coverage confirmed

Key Drivers — T+0

1

Elevated GDELT event volume (+40% above baseline)

2

ACLED grey-zone incident count rising steadily

3

OpenSanctions: new entities flagged in region

This scenario demonstrates Logicon's role as an OSINT fusion and probabilistic forecasting module within the broader MSS NATO platform. Each new data point triggers re-evaluation across the full feature vector, producing calibrated probability estimates with explainable key drivers. Tactical capabilities (ISR, SIGINT, targeting, C2) are provided by complementary platform modules -- Logicon augments the decision picture, it does not replace it.