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What-If Scenario Explorer

Modify operational parameters to explore how changes affect escalation probability

Escalation Probability
79.2%
0.0pp from baseline
Top 3 Contributing Factors
1
Event Count
No change
w=0.08
2
Fatality Rate
No change
w=0.20
3
Intensity Trend
No change
w=0.07

Conflict Dynamics

50
0500
8%
100
01000
20%
0.10
-11
7%
0.30
01
5%

Information Environment

-2.00
-1010
4%
1000
010000
3%
-1.00
-1010
5%
0.20
01
3%

Financial Stress

22
1080
4%
0.50
-23
3%
0.10
01
4%
0.15
01
3%

Structural Vulnerability

0.45
01
6%
0.50
01
4%
0.40
01
5%
0.30
01
4%
0.35
01
5%
40 per 1k
0200
29%

This explorer uses a simplified weighted sigmoid function for demonstration purposes. In production, Logicon employs a calibrated ensemble model (60% logistic regression + 40% decision stump forest) with isotonic calibration for accurate probability estimates.

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